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By: Alan S. Blinder

Nightly Business Report:
“Remember Horton the elephant.”
June 5, 2006


About a month ago, an off-the-cuff remark by Chairman Ben Bernanke set off a major flap over Federal Reserve communications. Bernanke told a reporter that his April 27th Congressional testimony had been misunderstood. But he later apologized for his "lapse of judgment" in saying so.

Critics complained that the allegedly-transparent Bernanke was just as confusing as his predecessor, Alan Greenspan. But this complaint, like the market's reaction to the testimony, missed the point. Bernanke was speaking clearly. It's just that the markets were not hearing him.

The problem, I believe, is that traders are used to hearing the unique dialect known as Greenspeak, which must be deciphered like hieroglyphics. With Bernanke in command, the markets need a new Rosetta stone.

So let me provide it, with help from Dr. Suess. Remember Horton, the elephant who hatched the egg? He meant what he said, and he said what he meant. So does Bernanke.

For example, here's what he said in that now-famous testimony: "… at some point in the future, the Committee may decide to take no action at one or more meetings in the interest of allowing more time to receive information relevant to the outlook."

And that's just what he meant. Did you hear an implied promise to pause in June? Somehow, many traders did.

I'm afraid we're now in an awkward adjustment period, as the markets learn that the new Fed chairman speaks English, not Greenspeak. It will help the adjustment go faster if we all remember Horton.

I'm Alan Blinder.