Amidst all the Karl Rove hullabaloo, you may have missed it. But the White House issued some good news on the budget earlier this month. It now believes the deficit for the current fiscal year will be only $333 billion.

The president offered this as evidence that his economic policies are working. And it’s true that the economy is doing pretty well right now. But let’s remember a few things.

First, the new, improved deficit forecast is still a third of a trillion dollars. Which would be the third largest deficit ever, behind only--you guessed it--the previous two Bush budgets.

Second, the good news comes from a surge in tax revenue, much of which can be traced to non-recurring events -- such as bulging corporate profits, the end of a temporary tax break, and taxes on bonuses and capital gains earned in 2004.

Third, and most important, the real problem is not today’s deficit. Demographics make that easy. Since only the thin birth cohorts of the Depression years have been reaching age 65, recent years have been a kind of budgetary nirvana. We should have been running surpluses.

But after nirvana comes budgetary hell. The big Baby Boom cohorts start turning 65 just six years from now. And they will keep on coming, in greater and greater numbers, for years.

The federal government should be preparing for this demographic onslaught now. But, sadly, it is not. Truth be told, the long-run budget picture is a mess.

I’m Alan Blinder.