The financial question of the month seems to be: Are we now in a dangerous house price bubble? I have a straightforward answer: no. But I better explain what I mean. Or rather, what I don’t mean.

First, I am denying only the existence of a national housing bubble. Local house price bubbles blow up and burst all the time. But unlike stocks, homes are not traded frequently or easily across geographical space. So condo prices in midtown Manhattan are not tightly linked to house prices in Midland, Texas.

Second, I don’t mean that recent double-digit price increases for houses will continue. Such rapid price appreciation, at a time when overall inflation is low, is not what history teaches us to expect.

So it’s reasonable to expect house prices to slow down--just not to fall. Freddie Mac maintains a national average house price index that goes back to 1970. In all that time, there has never been a single year of declining house prices.

Maybe we’re on the verge of the worst housing market since the 1930s. But I wouldn’t bet on it.

Finally, let’s not forget that the fundamentals for housing have been quite strong of late. With incomes growing nicely, mortgage rates low, and the stock market stuck in the mud, it’s not surprising that house prices have done well. The question is how well.

So sell your house if you want to move, not because you’re afraid its value is about to collapse.

I’m Alan Blinder.